A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium.

A mathematical model for the spread of streptococcus pneumoniae with transmission due to sequence type

This paper discusses a simple mathematical model to describe the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae. We suppose that the transmission of the bacterium is determined by multi-locus sequence type. The model includes vaccination and is designed to examine what happens in a vaccinated population if MLSTs can exist as both vaccine and non vaccine serotypes with capsular switching possible from the former to the latter. We start off with a discussion of Streptococcus pneumoniae and a review of previous work. We propose a simple mathematical model with two sequence types and then perform an equilibrium and (global) stability analysis on the model. We show that in general there are only three equilibria, the carriage-free equilibrium and two carriage equilibria. If the effective reproduction number Re is less than or equal to one, then the carriage will die out. If Re > 1, then the carriage will tend to the carriage equilibrium corresponding to the multi-locus sequence type with the largest transmission parameter. In the case where both multi-locus sequence types have the same transmission parameter then there is a line of carriage equilibria. Provided that carriage is initially present then as time progresses the carriage will approach a point on this line. The results generalize to many competing sequence types. Simulations with realistic parameter values confirm the analytical results.

How to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population : a case study of influenza in waterfowl

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases critically depend on reservoir hosts, which can sustain the pathogen (or maintain the transmission) in the population even in the absence of other hosts. Although a theoretical foundation of the transmission dynamics in a multi-host population has been established, no quantitative methods exist for the identification of natural reservoir hosts. For a host to maintain the transmission alone, the host-specific reproduction number (U), interpreted as the average number of secondary transmissions caused by a single primary case in the host(s) of interest in the absence of all other hosts, must be greater than unity. If the host-excluded reproduction number (Q), representing the average number of secondary transmissions per single primary case in other hosts in the absence of the host(s) of interest, is below unity, transmission cannot be maintained in the multi-host population in the absence of the focal host(s).

The present study proposes a simple method for the identification of reservoir host(s) from observed endemic prevalence data across a range of host species. As an example, we analyze an aggregated surveillance dataset of influenza A virus in wild birds among which dabbling ducks exhibit higher prevalence compared to other bird species. Since the heterogeneous contact patterns between different host species are not directly observable, we test four different contact structures to account for the uncertainty. Meeting the requirements of U > 1 and Q < 1 for all four different contact structures, mallards and other dabbling ducks most likely constitute the reservoir community which plays a predominant role in maintaining the transmission of influenza A virus in the water bird population. We further discuss epidemiological issues which are concerned with the interpretation of influenza prevalence data, identifying key features to be fully clarified in the future.

Windows into practice: constructing effective science teaching and learning in a school change initiative

This paper outlines the development of a framework - the Science in Schools (SiS) Components - that describes effective science teaching and learning and that has become a central focus for the Science in Schools Research project that is being implemented in 225 Australian schools. The description is in a form that provides a basis for monitoring change, and which can be validated against project outcomes. The SiS Components were partially based on interviews with a small number of primary and secondary teachers identified as effective practitioners, and have been subject to a variety of validation processes. The focus of this paper is on a particular form of validation involving interviews with an expanded set of effective primary teachers, from three Australian states. Case descriptions of core elements of these teachers' beliefs and practice were constructed, and a review and mapping process used to examine the extent to which the SiS Components, as a distinct 'window into practice', align with and capture these core elements, and differentiate the practice of these effective teachers from other primary teachers in the project.

The power of the 6 three model for enhancing academic teachers' capacities for effective online teaching and learning: benefits, initiatives and future directions

To gain the full educational benefits of the major new investments in corporate technologies supporting online teaching and learning it is argued that a strategic, systems based approach to academic professional development (APD) is required. Such an approach requires a clear view of the key areas of potential and enduring teaching and learning benefit which can be realised from online developments, including an understanding of the changing role of the academic teacher in higher education, the identification of the desired professional capacities to educate online, and the implementation of a number of coordinated initiatives to develop these professional capacities in order to engage constructively with the learning and technology opportunities. Based on previous work, we propose a 6three model of Academic Professional Capacities Development for effective APD of online teaching and learning. The model can help inform the actions of policy makers, executives and practitioners in ways that promote an authentic learning organisation.

Is more better? The relationship between outcomes achieved by problem gamblers and the number of counselling sessions attended

This paper addresses the question of how much intervention is necessary for the effective treatment of problem gambling by exploring the relationship between the number of counselling sessions attended and the degree of problem resolution achieved for 613 individuals who attended problem gambling counselling services in Victoria. While those who achieved partial or full resolution of presenting problems attended more sessions than those who finished counselling with their problems still unresolved, problems were typically reported as being resolved in fewer than five sessions. It is concluded that for some problem gamblers a relatively brief intervention may be sufficient.

The 6 by the power of 3 model for enhancing academic teachers' capacities for effective online teaching and learning: benefits, initiatives and future directions

To gain the full educational benefits of the major new investments in corporate technologies supporting online teaching and learning it is argued that a strategic, systems based approach of academic professional development (APD) is required. Such an approach requires a clear view of the key areas of potential and enduring teaching and learning benefit which can be realised from online developments, including an understanding of the changing role of the academic teacher in higher education, the identification of the desired professional capacities to educate online and the implementation of a number of coordinated initiatives to develop these professional capacities in order to engage constructively with the learning and technology opportunities. Based on previous work, we propose a '6' by the power of '3' model of Academic Professional Capacities Development for effective APD of online teaching and learning. The model can help inform the actions of policy makers, executives and practitioners in ways that promote an authentic learning organisation.

A lower bound on effective performance testing for digital forensic tools

The increasing complexity and number of digital forensic tasks required in criminal investigations demand the development of an effective and efficient testing methodology, enabling tools of similar functionalities to be compared based on their performance. Assuming that the tool tester is familiar with the underlying testing platform and has the ability to use the tools correctly, we provide a numerical solution for the lower bound on the number of testing cases needed to determine comparative capabilities of any set of digital forensic tools. We also present a case study on the performance testing of password cracking tools, which allows us to confirm that the lower bound on the number of testing runs needed is closely related to the row size of certain orthogonal arrays. We show how to reduce the number of test runs by using knowledge of the underlying system

An effective and efficient testing methodology for correctness testing for file recovery tools

We hereby develop an effective and efficient testing methodology for correctness testing for file recovery tools across different file systems. We assume that the tool tester is familiar with the formats of common file types and has the ability to use the tools correctly. Our methodology first derives a testing plan to minimize the number of runs required to identify the differences in tools with respect to correctness. We also present a case study on correctness testing for file carving tools, which allows us to confirm that the number of necessary testing runs is bounded and our results are statistically sound.

A spectroscopy of texts for effective clustering

For many clustering algorithms, such as k-means, EM, and CLOPE, there is usually a requirement to set some parameters. Often, these parameters directly or indirectly control the number of clusters to return. In the presence of different data characteristics and analysis contexts, it is often difficult for the user to estimate the number of clusters in the data set. This is especially true in text collections such as Web documents, images or biological data. The fundamental question this paper addresses is: ldquoHow can we effectively estimate the natural number of clusters in a given text collection?rdquo. We propose to use spectral analysis, which analyzes the eigenvalues (not eigenvectors) of the collection, as the solution to the above. We first present the relationship between a text collection and its underlying spectra. We then show how the answer to this question enhances the clustering process. Finally, we conclude with empirical results and related work.

The perceptions of expert coaches about effective leadership in sport

Research on effective leadership in sport has identified a number of characteristics and situations that impact on coaching effectiveness. These include coach effect on athlete satisfaction and performance, self-esteem and trait anxiety. This research has focused on athletes' perceptions of or preferences for specific leadership behaviors and actual coach behaviors identified by observing coaches. Few studies have recognized the views of the expert coach as a potentially valuable source of information regarding effective leadership and the coaching process. The present study investigated expert coaches' perception and interpretation of the leadership process. Twenty successful coaches working with Australian junior elite sport participants were purposefully sampled to cover a diversity of sports (team and individual) and provide a gender balance across sports. Through in-depth interviews, based on Grounded Theory, the study examined three aspects of coaching, which provided the basis of the interview guide. These were coaching history and influences, effective coaching behaviors, and coach training and accreditation. Eight major themes emerged: (a) influence of history on coaching behaviors, (b) knowledge of the sport, (c) pedagogy skills, (d) coaches' personal qualities, (e) coach-athlete relationships, (f) coaches' evaluation of the athlete, (g) coach and athlete outcomes, and (h) enjoyment of the coaching process. The results highlight the important role coaches play in future coach development, the impact of coach self-efficacy attributed to athlete self-efficacy, and how coach-related outcomes drive the coaching process. These results have noteworthy implications for coach education programs.

Technogyny : the transformation of reproduction

Explores the major social and political consequences of new reproductive and genetic technologies. Increasingly the experience and process of reproduction is dominated by technology and medicine. Suggests an international institution such as the UN is likely to be the most effective in addressing the concerns associated with the technologies' adverse effects. Such intervention is unlikely without active and sophisticated lobbying from women around the world.

Effects of snow cover on the timing and success of reproduction in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

During four breeding seasons, 2003–2006, we studied the relationship between snow cover and nesting performance in pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in a key breeding site on Svalbard. Snow cover in late May, i.e., at the time of egg laying of geese, was derived from MODIS satellite images. Snow cover had a profound cascading effect on reproductive output via the number of nesting pairs and timing of nesting, which affected nest success, while there was only a tendency for a negative effect on clutch size. Hence, we estimated a five-fold difference in the number of young produced (to post-hatching) between years with little snow and years with high snow cover. The results from the study area correlated with whole-population productivity estimates recorded in autumn. Thus, snow cover derived from MODIS satellite images appears to provide a useful indicator of the breeding conditions in the Arctic.

Integrated modelling of cost-effective siting and operation of flow-control infrastructure for river ecosystem conservation

Wetland and floodplain ecosystems along many regulated rivers are highly stressed, primarily due to a lack of environmental flows of appropriate magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing to support ecological functions. In the absence of increased environmental flows, the ecological health of river ecosystems can be enhanced by the operation of existing and new flow-control infrastructure (weirs and regulators) to return more natural environmental flow regimes to specific areas. However, determining the optimal investment and operation strategies over time is a complex task due to several factors including the multiple environmental values attached to wetlands, spatial and temporal heterogeneity and dependencies, nonlinearity, and time-dependent decisions. This makes for a very large number of decision variables over a long planning horizon. The focus of this paper is the development of a nonlinear integer programming model that accommodates these complexities. The mathematical objective aims to return the natural flow regime of key components of river ecosystems in terms of flood timing, flood duration, and interflood period. We applied a 2-stage recursive heuristic using tabu search to solve the model and tested it on the entire South Australian River Murray floodplain. We conclude that modern meta-heuristics can be used to solve the very complex nonlinear problems with spatial and temporal dependencies typical of environmental flow allocation in regulated river ecosystems. The model has been used to inform the investment in, and operation of, flow-control infrastructure in the South Australian River Murray.